50e9 /50e3 = 1e6 = A million dollars. That's not a lot of money.. Think about it this way. 1) Child is born -> associated costs (Maternal and paternal leave impact, Food, Doctors costs, Immunization, Tax breaks for meds, Hospital trips, Parents sick off due to their children being a disease cauldron... Get the picture? ) 2) Child goes to school -> Education subsidies, books, Fees cost to school, Cost of infrastructure to support the child in school (roads, maziwa ya nyayo, playgrounds, school trips, books, uniforms -> importation of clothing......) 3) Child goes to high school -> More of the above, sex education, free contraceptives, A lot more food, 4) At this point, your total cost and estimated future worth to the economy is in 10s of millions, 5) You go to university of become a professional; your total future worth dramatically increases as you specialize. 6) You die at the tender age of 25 due to a rabid dog bite.... You think this is unrealistic? The typical baby cost an extra 10-20k/month. Lets put that at 15k/month -> 1.8e5. Assume that his/her costs go up at a rate of 10% annually and the inflation is 14% (Source Wolfram Alpha [1]). The cost of just maintaining that baby till it's 20 years old is going to cost you 13 million bob. At 25 years that number becomes ridiculous; no wonder our parents are raring to kick us out of the house after/during Uni. In [18]: Inflation=0.14 In [19]: Growth_rate=0.1 In [20]: Principal=(15000 * 12) In [21]: Principal * (1 + Growth_rate + Inflation)**20 Out[21]: 13295546.961594688 In [22]: Principal * (1 + Growth_rate + Inflation)**25 Out[22]: 38977558.690927185 So now, you have that cost :) Let's get you to be productive. Let's assume that each year, your contribution to the economy grows by 10% right (You are becoming a pro at IT, exporting software, becoming Kim.Com....) and we adjust your salary for inflation and we put you to work for 25 years. And we start you with a measly salary of 15,000 Kenya shillings... Guess what, the final worth is the last calculation above (38 Million). I admit that this is a lot of handwaving that will grossly underestimate the value of a life. For more realistic estimates, see Wikipedia [2][3]. Wikipedia's lowest entry is 50K USD/year; that's what your typical insurance estimates. Assuming that this is your productive life time is 20 years, that is 1 million dollars right there... The numbers are chilling when you start considering the cost of traffic jams in Nairobi only. *Man hours lost,* cost of fuel, pollution related diseases, stress related diseases, elevated probability of accidental deaths... You may not know it, but you die a little every day you take a Matatu/Car as opposed to cycling; if the infrastructure was there. From an article[5] They found that where people had changed their mode of transport from cars to bikes, there were “substantially larger” beneficial effects, with a gain in life expectancy of 3-14 months set against 0.8 – 40 days lost due to air pollution, and 5-9 days lost as a result of road traffic pollution, leading them to conclude that “on average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting mode of transport.” They added that benefits to society would be “even larger due to a modest reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents.” Here are some fudged statistics; the estimates below are off the top of my head. In [24]: avg_hours_in_traffic_per_day=1.5 In [25]: People_in_traffic=500000 In [27]: average_density_per_car=4 In [29]: cost_of_fuel_per_day =15000 / 20 # In 2007, fuel used to cost me ~ 15K/month In [30]: cost_of_fuel_per_day Out[30]: 750 Cost to the economy in man hours... Yup, that is 82 productive man lives lost in traffic every day! 82 prime working humans! In [33]: (People_in_traffic * avg_hours_in_traffic_per_day) / 365.0 Out[33]: 2054.794520547945 In [34]: man_years = (People_in_traffic * avg_hours_in_traffic_per_day) / 365.0 In [35]: man_years/25 Out[35]: 82.1917808219178 Fuel cost is at least 100 Million bob. In [43]: (people_in_traffic / average_density_per_car) * cost_of_fuel / 1e6 Out[43]: 93.75 Now read this article [5] and applaud the Dutch government. It's quite a shocker to see a huge chunk of the population cycling in the Netherlands. In Amsterdam, bankers in suits cycle to the office, CEOs cycle to the office, children cycle in the city, everyone cycles around [6]. Cars are the exception not the norm. In fact, you are either blatantly extravagant, completely clueless, a tourist or a having a small baby to own a car. Heck if you want a car, you just sign up to one of the many car sharing schemes.
From an example article [7]:
As a Greenwheels member you can reserve any car in the country online as long as its available for the hours you want it. You pick up a car as follows - your card has an RFID chip which when held against a sensor on the windscreen unlocks the door. You then have to enter your special pincode in a console on the dash. Before driving off you should briefly inspect the car for any damage and compare with the written log inside. Then off you go... After you're done driving *you return the car to the same parking spot* by the specified time, sign out and lock-up. 1. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=inflation%20kenya 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#cite_note-ViscusiAldy-2 3. http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=9692 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycling_in_the_Netherlands 5. http://road.cc/content/news/19656-dutch-study-finds-health-benefits-cycling-... . 6. http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2012/01/09/how-the-dutch-got-their-bi... 7. http://www.amsterdamtips.com/tips/green-wheels-car-rental-nl.php On Fri, Jan 18, 2013 at 7:43 PM, Mark Mwangi <mwangy@gmail.com> wrote:
The problem with such statistics is that how they ae calculated is rarely highlighted just the result is marketed as the global truth. How did they arrive at the figure that 50,000 deaths translates to a loss of $50 billion?
On Thu, Jan 17, 2013 at 10:51 PM, Laban Mwangi <lmwangi@gmail.com> wrote:
http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/webexclusive/4243841/Bizarre-sta...
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-- Regards,
Mark Mwangi
markmwangi.me.ke
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