The problem with Flash is that there are inconsistencies with the end-user experience with regards to resource consumption (eg on linux) and zero support on some platforms (i.e. Apple). If M$ is going the Apple way on its mobile devices with regards to Flash - and given that they are looking to streamline both their mobile and PC experiences as time goes...maybe Windows 9 might drop Flash support.

Having said that, the packaging and security offered on swf and other assets to make it difficult to reverse-engineer stuff is still a big plus for Flash. If only they could address the resource hogging and stability issues on some platforms, then over time they could win back the friends who left the fold...